To ally or not to ally: Is that the question?
In recent weeks, we’ve had several scoops about strains in US alliances, particularly as Donald Trump puts pressure on European and Asian allies to spend more on defense.
A few weeks back, I attended the Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore where US defense secretary Peth Hegseth called on allies in the Indo-Pacific to boost their military spending as threats from China and North Korea become more stark.
The IISS-run conference is always excellent, particularly because, unlike the Munich Security Conference, reporters are in the same venue as the officials. There was less tension this year, however, because China did not send a high-level delegation. Ahead of the event, I had the scoop that China’s defense minster Dong Jun would not show.
There were lots of theories about why Dong did not attend. Was China tired of being slammed from most sides at the event? Was China concerned that Dong would have to field questions about Xi Jinping purging top PLA generals? We recently had the scope that Xi had purged He Weidong, one of the two vice-chairs of the powerful Central Military Commission. Or was there some other reason? Nobody really knows.
After returning to Washington, I had another scoop about the US and its allies when I reported that the Pentagon was reviewing Aukus, the US-UK-Australia deal designed to enable Canberra to procure a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. The story created quite a stir in Australia where Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and three former prime ministers weighed in. You can read some of former PM Malcolm Turnbull’s views in this Aukus analysis that I wrote with my colleague in Sydney.
While new governments often review deals signed by previous governments, the story triggered anxiety in Canberra because the Pentagon official leading the review is Bridge Colby, the #3 official who has been sceptical of the deal, even calling it crazy.
Colby has taken a number of actions that have made US allies nervous. We previously reported that he had told the UK and other European countries to focus less on the Indo-Pacific and more on the Euro-Atlantic region. His stance is in stark contrast to the Biden administration which wanted European militaries to do more in the western Pacific to send a message to Beijing that the US and its allies were united.
I had another scoop involving Colby today (Jun 20) after I discovered that Japan had cancelled a high-level ministerial meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hegseth. Tokyo cancelled the 2+2 meeting after Colby abruptly told Japan that the US wanted it to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, and not the already contentious 3% level that Washington had been pushing for.
Our story also revealed that Nato members would not mention the Indo-Pacific in their communique when they meet in The Hague next week. The Trump team did not push for any reference, in a 180-degree shift from the Biden administration.
One interesting recent piece worth reading is by Ely Ratner who makes the case for a Pacific defence pact in Foreign Affairs. Ratner was the top Pentagon official for the Indo-Pacific during the Biden administration.
Okay, enough serious stuff. Here are some photos. This first batch are from San Diego where I went in 2023 to attend the official launch of the Aukus submarine plan.
Given the Japan story up higher, here are some shots from around Japan, including some from a sabbatical I took in the country last fall.
Ginza, Tokyo
Harajuku, Tokyo (filming a commercial)
View from Tokyo Skytree
View of the Kuril Islands from Shiretoko Peninsula, Hokkaido
Japanese snow monkey, Nagano
Osaka
Finally, here are a few images I took this week near the Susquehanna River, MD
Eagle at Conowingo Dam, one of the best places to see eagles on the east coast.
If you’re interested in photography, please follow me on Instagram or check out my website www.demetrisevastopulo.com
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading. If you have friends who might be interested in this kind of material, please send them the link to my Substack. Until next time!